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We conduct a systematic search for quasars with periodic variations from the archival photometric data of the Zwicky Transient Facility by cross-matching with the quasar catalogues of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Véron-Cetty and Véron. We first select out 184 primitive periodic candidates using the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram and autocorrelation function and then estimate their statistical significance of periodicity based on two red-noise models, i.e. damped random walk (DRW) and single power-law (SPL) models. As such, we finally identify 106 (DRW) and 86 (SPL) candidates with the most significant periodic variations out of 143 700 quasars. We further compare DRW and SPL models using Bayes factors, which indicate a relative preference of the SPL model for our primitive sample. We thus adopt the candidates identified with SPL as the final sample and summarize its basic properties. We extend the light curves of the selected candidates by supplying other archival survey data to verify their periodicity. However, only three candidates (with 6–8 cycles of periods) meet the selection criteria. This result clearly implies that, instead of being strictly periodic, the variability must be quasi-periodic or caused by stochastic red-noise. This exerts a challenge to the existing search approaches and calls for developing new effective methods.

 

We performed a rigorous reverberation-mapping analysis of the broad-line region (BLR) in a highly accreting (L/L_Edd= 0.74–3.4) active galactic nucleus, Markarian 142 (Mrk 142), for the first time using concurrent observations of the inner accretion disk and the BLR to determine a time lag for the Hβλ4861 emission relative to the ultraviolet (UV) continuum variations. We used continuum data taken with the Niel Gehrels Swift Observatory in theUVW2 band, and the Las Cumbres Observatory, Dan Zowada Memorial Observatory, and Liverpool Telescope in thegband, as part of the broader Mrk 142 multiwavelength monitoring campaign in 2019. We obtained new spectroscopic observations covering the Hβbroad emission line in the optical from the Gemini North Telescope and the Lijiang 2.4 m Telescope for a total of 102 epochs (over a period of 8 months) contemporaneous to the continuum data. Our primary result states a UV-to-Hβtime lag of${8.68}_{-0.72}^{+0.75}$days in Mrk 142 obtained from light-curve analysis with a Python-based running optimal average algorithm. We placed our new measurements for Mrk 142 on the optical and UV radius–luminosity relations for NGC 5548 to understand the nature of the continuum driver. The positions of Mrk 142 on the scaling relations suggest that UV is closer to the “true” driving continuum than the optical. Furthermore, we obtain$\log (M_{•}/M_{\odot })$= 6.32 ± 0.29 assuming UV as the primary driving continuum.

 

We compile optical and mid-infrared light curves from the time-domain surveys (i.e. CRTS, PTF, ZTF, and ASAS-SN) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) archive for a selected sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with Hβ reverberation mapping (RM) measurements. We measure the time lags (and thus torus sizes) of W1 (∼3.4 $\mu$ m) and W2 (∼4.6 $\mu$ m) band light curves relative to the optical one using the MICA method. Through Hβ RM, the sample has well-measured AGN properties, therefore allowing us to reliably constrain the relations between torus sizes and AGN properties. We perform linear regressions for the relations between torus sizes and 5100 Å luminosities ($R\propto L_{5100}^{\beta }$ ) in two cases: β = 0.5 and β set free. The latter case yields β ≈ 0.37 ± 0.028 for both W1 and W2 bands, shallower than the expected value of 0.5, possibly due to the dependence of torus size on accretion rate. For β = 0.5, by combining with the previous K band RM measurements, we obtain the characteristic broad-line region (BLR) and tours sizes following RBLR:RK :RW1:RW2 = 1.0:6.2:9.2:11.2. We investigate the deviations of the W1 and W2 band observed torus sizes from the corresponding best-fitting relations (with β = 0.5) and find that they both are correlated with accretion rate. As the accretion rate increases, the torus sizes tend to be shortened compared to the anticipated sizes from the best-fitting relations, similar to the behaviour found in BLRs. Such behaviours can be explained by the self-shadowing effect of slim discs. This is further supported by ratios of the W1 and W2 band torus sizes to BLR sizes, which do not show significant correlations with AGN properties.

 

The AGN STORM 2 campaign is a large, multiwavelength reverberation mapping project designed to trace out the structure of Mrk 817 from the inner accretion disk to the broad emission line region and out to the dusty torus. As part of this campaign, Swift performed daily monitoring of Mrk 817 for approximately 15 months, obtaining observations in X-rays and six UV/optical filters. The X-ray monitoring shows that Mrk 817 was in a significantly fainter state than in previous observations, with only a brief flare where it reached prior flux levels. The X-ray spectrum is heavily obscured. The UV/optical light curves show significant variability throughout the campaign and are well correlated with one another, but uncorrelated with the X-rays. Combining the Swift UV/optical light curves with Hubble Space Telescope UV continuum light curves, we measure interband continuum lags,τ(λ), that increase with increasing wavelength roughly followingτ(λ) ∝λ^4/3, the dependence expected for a geometrically thin, optically thick, centrally illuminated disk. Modeling of the light curves reveals a period at the beginning of the campaign where the response of the continuum is suppressed compared to later in the light curve—the light curves are not simple shifted and scaled versions of each other. The interval of suppressed response corresponds to a period of high UV line and X-ray absorption, and reduced emission line variability amplitudes. We suggest that this indicates a significant contribution to the continuum from the broad-line region gas that sees an absorbed ionizing continuum.

 

We fit the UV/optical lightcurves of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 817 to produce maps of the accretion disk temperature fluctuationsδTresolved in time and radius. TheδTmaps are dominated by coherent radial structures that move slowly (v≪c) inward and outward, which conflicts with the idea that disk variability is driven only by reverberation. Instead, these slow-moving temperature fluctuations are likely due to variability intrinsic to the disk. We test how modifying the input lightcurves by smoothing and subtracting them changes the resultingδTmaps and find that most of the temperature fluctuations exist over relatively long timescales (hundreds of days). We show how detrending active galactic nucleus (AGN) lightcurves can be used to separate the flux variations driven by the slow-moving temperature fluctuations from those driven by reverberation. We also simulate contamination of the continuum emission from the disk by continuum emission from the broad-line region (BLR), which is expected to have spectral features localized in wavelength, such as the Balmer break contaminating theUband. We find that a disk with a smooth temperature profile cannot produce a signal localized in wavelength and that any BLR contamination should appear as residuals in our model lightcurves. Given the observed residuals, we estimate that only ∼20% of the variable flux in theUandulightcurves can be due to BLR contamination. Finally, we discus how these maps not only describe the data but can make predictions about other aspects of AGN variability.

 

In many medical and scientific settings, the choice of treatment or intervention may be de-termined by a covariate threshold. For example, elderly men may receive more thoroughdiagnosis if their prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level is high. In these cases, the causaltreatment effect is often of great interest, especially when there is a lack of evidence fromrandomized clinical trials. From the social science literature, a class of methods known asregression discontinuity (RD) designs can be used to estimate the treatment effect in thissituation. Under certain assumptions, such an estimand enjoys a causal interpretation. Weshow how to estimate causal effects under the regression discontinuity design for censoreddata. The proposed estimation procedure employs a class of censoring unbiased transfor-mations that includes inverse probability censored weighting and doubly robust transfor-mation schemes. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the finite-sample properties of theproposed estimator. We also illustrate the proposed method by evaluating the causal effectof PSA-dependent screening strategies 

We report the results of long-term reverberation mapping campaigns of the nearby active galactic nuclei (AGNs) NGC 4151, spanning from 1994 to 2022, based on archived observations of the FAST Spectrograph Publicly Archived Programs and our new observations with the 2.3 m telescope at the Wyoming Infrared Observatory. We reduce and calibrate all the spectra in a consistent way, and derive light curves of the broad H β line and 5100 Å continuum. Continuum light curves are also constructed using public archival photometric data to increase sampling cadences. We subtract the host galaxy contamination using Hubble Space Telescope imaging to correct fluxes of the calibrated light curves. Utilizing the long-term archival photometric data, we complete the absolute flux-calibration of the AGN continuum. We find that the H β time delays are correlated with the 5100 Å luminosities as $\tau _{\rm H\beta }\propto L_{5100}^{0.46\pm 0.16}$. This is remarkably consistent with Bentz et al. (2013)’s global size–luminosity relationship of AGNs. Moreover, the data sets for five of the seasons allow us to obtain the velocity-resolved delays of the H β line, showing diverse structures (outflows, inflows, and discs). Combining our results with previous independent measurements, we find the measured dynamics of the H β broad-line region (BLR) are possibly related to the long-term trend of the luminosity. There is also a possible additional ∼1.86 yr time lag between the variation in BLR radius and luminosity. These results suggest that dynamical changes in the BLR may be driven by the effects of radiation pressure.

 

Abstract The AGN STORM 2 Collaboration targeted the Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 817 for a year-long multiwavelength, coordinated reverberation mapping campaign including Hubble Space Telescope, Swift, XMM-Newton, NICER, and ground-based observatories. Early observations with NICER and XMM revealed an X-ray state 10 times fainter than historical observations, consistent with the presence of a new dust-free, ionized obscurer. The following analysis of NICER spectra attributes variability in the observed X-ray flux to changes in both the column density of the obscurer by at least one order of magnitude ( N H ranges from 2.85 − 0.33 + 0.48 × 10 22 cm − 2 to 25.6 − 3.5 + 3.0 × 10 22 cm − 2 ) and the intrinsic continuum brightness (the unobscured flux ranges from 10 −11.8 to 10 −10.5 erg s −1 cm −2 ). While the X-ray flux generally remains in a faint state, there is one large flare during which Mrk 817 returns to its historical mean flux. The obscuring gas is still present at lower column density during the flare, but it also becomes highly ionized, increasing its transparency. Correlation between the column density of the X-ray obscurer and the strength of UV broad absorption lines suggests that the X-ray and UV continua are both affected by the same obscuration, consistent with a clumpy disk wind launched from the inner broad-line region. 

Abstract We present reverberation mapping measurements for the prominent ultraviolet broad emission lines of the active galactic nucleus Mrk 817 using 165 spectra obtained with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. Our ultraviolet observations are accompanied by X-ray, optical, and near-infrared observations as part of the AGN Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Program 2 (AGN STORM 2). Using the cross-correlation lag analysis method, we find significant correlated variations in the continuum and emission-line light curves. We measure rest-frame delayed responses between the far-ultraviolet continuum at 1180 Å and Ly α λ 1215 Å ( 10.4 − 1.4 + 1.6 days), N v λ 1240 Å ( 15.5 − 4.8 + 1.0 days), Si iv + ]O iv λ 1397 Å ( 8.2 − 1.4 + 1.4 days), C iv λ 1549 Å ( 11.8 − 2.8 + 3.0 days), and He ii λ 1640 Å ( 9.0 − 1.9 + 4.5 days) using segments of the emission-line profile that are unaffected by absorption and blending, which results in sampling different velocity ranges for each line. However, we find that the emission-line responses to continuum variations are more complex than a simple smoothed, shifted, and scaled version of the continuum light curve. We also measure velocity-resolved lags for the Ly α and C iv emission lines. The lag profile in the blue wing of Ly α is consistent with virial motion, with longer lags dominating at lower velocities, and shorter lags at higher velocities. The C iv lag profile shows the signature of a thick rotating disk, with the shortest lags in the wings, local peaks at ±1500 km s −1 , and a local minimum at the line center. The other emission lines are dominated by broad absorption lines and blending with adjacent emission lines. These require detailed models, and will be presented in future work.